Our betting expert Jones Knows provides his insight as he analyses Sunday’s two FA Cup quarter-finals…
Preston vs Aston Villa, Sunday 1.30pm
Deepdale will be packed to the rafters, hoping to witness a cup shock. But in reality, it’s hard to foresee one occurring.
In 28 FA Cup fifth round or quarter-final games involving Manchester City, Manchester United, Arsenal, Liverpool and Chelsea over the past seven seasons – so, elite teams – those teams have won 26 of those matches in normal time. The only two occasions a so-called shock has happened was when Leicester beat Chelsea and Manchester United, although that was the high-flying version of the Foxes who went onto win the cup outright.
This is a good indicator to showcase the elite teams are very reliable from a betting perspective at this stage of the competition where Wembley and the chance of winning the trophy are in sight.
Also, Preston could have up to five first-team players missing too. Kaine Kesler-Hayden (ineligible to face parent club), Ryan Porteous (cup tied), Sam Greenwood and Ryan Ledson (both suspended) are out and it’s unclear what the situation is with Milutin Osmajic after he was charged by the FA for alleged racist comments against Burnley.
Villa to win and under 3.5 goals at 11/10 with Sky Bet looks the smart play.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1
Bournemouth vs Manchester City, Sunday 4pm
I’ve got a bit of a rule when analysing games from a result perspective and trying to formulate a prediction: if once I’ve run all my key data and added my own views into the mix and that process takes longer than 30 minutes to come to a conclusive view on whether the prices are right, it means the draw has to be a runner.
It is here.
I wanted to try and back Bournemouth outright but they are shorter than what I’d expect at Evens to qualify considering they are without Dean Huijsen and Milos Kerkez – two of their mainstays at the back who are missing due to suspension.
Plus, the Cherries have annoyed me of late with their inability to do the basics right, neglecting game management in the defeat to Tottenham before showing an worrying inability to defend set-pieces against Brentford. I can’t trust them. I can’t trust Manchester City. So, the draw it is at 11/4 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 (Bournemouth to win on penalties) | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Either team to win on penalties (13/2 with Sky Bet)
Jones Knows’ best bets..
- 1pt on Fulham vs Crystal Palace to go to penalties (5/1 with Sky Bet)
- 1pt on Brighton vs Nottingham Forest to go to penalties (5/1 with Sky Bet)
- 1pt on Bournemouth vs Man City to go to penalties (5/1 with Sky Bet)
- 0.5pts on Fulham vs Crystal Palace, Brighton vs Nottingham Forest & Bournemouth vs Man City all to go to penalties (314/1 with Sky Bet)
